The Paris Agreement signalled a strong political will towards a decarbonised economy. Keeping within a 2°C – or preferably within a 1.5°C – target requires not only a deep overhaul of our energy mix, as energy production and use account for two thirds of global emissions, but also innovation and behavioural change. This should have implications for a wide range of policies including those that promote energy efficiency and renewables’ deployment, carbon pricing, and investment in research and new infrastructures. So what could the energy sector look like in the next decades if it were to deliver on the Paris ambition – while recognising the remaining uncertainties related to the implementation of national commitments, the prospects for international cooperation, and geopolitics?

At this Policy Dialogue, Statoil presented three scenarios for energy perspectives until 2040, which was followed by an expert discussion. Issues discussed included: what assumptions could be made about regional and global economic growth, conflicts, technological developments, and energy and climate policies in the future? How could these affect the development of energy mixes, the prospects for demand and supply of primary energy, and the transition towards a decarbonised economy?