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The European economic outlook 2015






EVENT
Tuesday, 24 February 2015







Broadly speaking participants in this Policy Dialogue expressed cautious optimism about Europe’s economic growth prospects in 2015. Key issues included the factors that will determine Europe’s economic outlook such as oil prices (currently at low levels) and inflation. The ECB’s quantitative easing action was also discussed as was the Juncker investment plan for Europe. Whilst the OECD’s economic forecast will only come out in March, the organisation’s chief economist expected a mildly more positive economic growth projection whilst cautioning that there is still a risk of persistent stagnation. She argued that monetary, fiscal and structural policies need to be used in conjunction, vaunted the merits of European coordination and saw potential in the Juncker investment plan. In connection with the EU’s fiscal framework, she hinted that the large number of targets and metrics for a country’s performance on the debt side may be constraining governments from a policy path consistent with growth. She also said that, contrary to what is happening in various countries, public investment is the “least best thing to cut in the middle of fiscal consolidation”. The Commission also suggested that there may be a “very gradual and uneven recovery” in Europe. Factors that may lead to more growth include the full effects of quantitative easing feeding through, the effects of the EU action plan on investment, a bigger impact of oil prices and further exchange rate depreciation.



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