With a big bang at the Munich Security Conference in February 2025, the new US administration declared an end to the values-based relationship that has shaped Europe and the world for many decades, and that has played a key role in keeping Europeans safe.
For many years, and well before Russia’s illegitimate annexation of Crimea and its war of aggression against Ukraine, successive US administrations had warned Europeans against complacency, pointing to both an evolving security situation in Europe and a recalibration of US resources. These warnings yielded limited results, but were heard especially in European countries that felt acutely exposed to Russia’s aggressive neo-imperialism.
A new era
The return of Donald Trump to the White House means that Europeans have to adapt fast to a tremendous shift in US foreign and security policy. Europeans will have to do no less than rebuild the political and security architecture for their continent.
At the time of writing, the situation is evolving by the hour, driven by both the words and actions of President Trump and his core team. There is a great deal of uncertainty over what comes next. But one can safely say that this is the most existential moment that free and democratic Europe has seen since World War II. The post-WWII architecture is no longer, and Europe has very high stakes in making sure it takes its destiny in its own hands now and shapes what comes next.
High stakes
The profound change of course of the US both at home and abroad has many implications for Europe: first and foremost on European security, with Europeans being left acutely vulnerable; second, on Europe’s future political architecture, given that both EU and non-EU countries will have to come together to take fundamental decisions on common goods; third, on the EU’s economic power, given that the global order that benefited the EU by playing to its strengths is now being rapidly dismantled; fourth, on the future of liberal democracy in Europe; and fifth, on the way that Europeans interact with the US and other parts of the world in the future.
The task ahead is clear, and it is enormous: from now on, Europeans will have to build from their own resources the ability to keep Europeans safe and prosperous. The nature of this challenge requires real sacrifice. It requires significant financial, military and political contributions, as well as ground-breaking work to rebuild both the political and security architecture of Europe. It will have to involve a rethink of the division of labour between the European pillar of NATO (if NATO survives in its current shape, which is not a given) and the EU and its members, as well as non-EU members, such as the United Kingdom, Turkey or Norway. This will take place as pre-existing internal divisions within the EU deepen further, as these will be fuelled from the other side of the Atlantic. Given that the US will leverage security for economic gain, this makes the political economy of Europe crucial.
It is very likely that not all EU members will be pulling in the same direction on these fundamental matters. That means there will be the need to form a group of countries that moves ahead decisively. This will affect the overall cohesion and purpose of the EU, but the implications of a lack of action would be far worse.
Most urgently, Europeans have to come together with a concrete and credible plan for how to protect and restore Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This will not guarantee that Europe is at the table when the US and Russia negotiate over the future of European security, but it is the only way to try and achieve this goal.
Rethinking Europe’s architecture
At the same time, Europeans will have to understand and act on what the new US course means for the future of NATO overall. This will be difficult to assess, given ambiguous messages from the US leadership. Fundamentally, the tremendous loss of mutual trust between Europe and the Trump administration will make meaningful engagement within NATO very difficult. In this situation, Europe should avoid placing its eggs in one basket, and work instead on increasing its options. As much as Europeans should work on keeping the US interested in Europe, there is no alternative to acting decisively now on going-it-alone, given continued and supportive US engagement within NATO could easily turn out to be wishful thinking.
All of this will absorb a huge amount of attention by European leaders at home. However, it would be a mistake for Europe to turn inwards now. Europeans need to be smart and understand that continued and strengthened engagement with other parts of the world can actually help underpin European power at home. This can be achieved through new partnerships based on attractive offers, ideally based on trust, and by shaping a European narrative that underlines common opportunity that can come with the fundamental reboot of the European and global order.
There is reason to believe that the US’s words and deeds at home and on the global stage in recent weeks have spurred not only Europe to seek out new partnerships to preserve a good future for its citizens. Europe needs to embrace this opportunity with realism and ambition.
Almut Möller is Director for European and Global Affairs and head of the Europe in the World programme at the European Policy Centre.
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