The sentence handed to far-right leader Marine Le Pen on 31 March may prevent her from becoming France’s next president, but it is also likely to add to the political instability and uncertainty in the EU’s second-largest country.
Judges in Paris found Le Pen guilty of embezzlement of public money and sentenced her to four years in prison (two of them suspended) and five years of ineligibility with immediate effect. The case had been brought against Le Pen and 24 other Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) and parliamentary assistants by the European Parliament (EP). They were accused of using EP money to pay staff members of her National Rally (RN) party in Paris who were registered as assistants in Strasbourg and Brussels.
The first consequence of the trial outcome is that the arguably most powerful French politician, with the exception of President Emmanuel Macron, will be barred from running in the next French presidential election. Those elections are due in 2027 – likely to be too early for Le Pen be cleared in an appeal trial. In an opinion poll published the day before she was sentenced, Le Pen was credited with 37% of voting intentions in the first round of a presidential election – beyond what any politician has ever achieved in an actual election.
But Le Pen is not completely out. Her ineligibility does not prevent her from remaining a member of the National Assembly, where she chairs the 125-strong RN group, the largest in the house. The 29-year-old RN president, Jordan Bardella, is the most likely heir to Le Pen, but many in the party consider him insufficiently prepared to run for president. Even before the sentencing, close allies suggested that if she could not become president, she could still pretend to be prime minister if her party won the elections. She will in any case continue to play a central role, similar to the role played in Poland by Law and Justice’s Kaczynski when his party was in power from 2015 to 2023.
The reaction of the RN’s electoral base to Le Pen’s sentencing will be crucial for France’s short- and mid-term political stability. Further radicalisation and polarisation of French politics is likely. Shortly after the sentence was announced, Bardella said that “it is French democracy that is being executed”. Other RN officials as well as other right-wing but also radical left politicians, have started to accuse judges of being politically motivated. The narrative of a political sentence destined to block the main opponent to the “system” is supported by media owned by billionaire Vincent Bolloré, which include the most viewed TV news channel, a national radio station and the oldest Sunday newspaper, in addition to France’s biggest publisher.
This will have an international dimension. Russian president Vladimir Putin, Hungarian Prime minister Viktor Orbán and Italian far-right leader Matteo Salvini were quick to condemn Le Pen’s sentencing as an attack on democracy by France and the EU. What is likely now is an international disinformation campaign similar to that waged, with the support of US Vice-President JD Vance, against Romania and the EU after pro-Russia candidate Călin Georgescu was barred from running in the presidential election after being suspected of irregularities in a previous campaign last year. The aim will be to weaken France’s social cohesion at a time when unity is key in the country and the whole of Europe.
The RN is likely to increase its opposition to president Macron and what is now his main domain of action: France’s foreign policy. Macron’s efforts to gather an international reassurance force in Ukraine, to develop European defence and discuss nuclear deterrence with European allies will continue to be the focus of the RN’s attacks and disinformation.
Eric Maurice is a Policy Analyst in the European Politics and Institutions programme at the EPC.
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