The European Union has entered an era of consecutive, compounding crises – permacrisis – that puts its agility to the test. To remain relevant inside and outside Europe, the EU27 must embrace the logic of ‘permachange’: constantly adapting in response to transformative crises. Confronted with fundamental (geo-)political and (geo-)economic shocks, the enlargement and reform imperatives are a proving ground for the EU and its members.
Many doubtful voices in Brussels, EU capitals and aspiring member states argue that the Union will not be able to widen and deepen in the coming years. They are convinced that current and potential future EU countries lack the political will and stamina to make this possible.
We disagree. Europeans can again determine their collective future. They are not condemned to become irrelevant at the regional and global level. They lack neither options nor agency when it comes to expanding and upgrading the Union. It is a matter of political choice.
Like the two strands of the Union’s DNA, enlargement and internal EU reform are necessary and should be thought together. To make good on its membership promise to the current candidates, the Union must adapt its operating system. But to make its governance fit for the future, the EU should ‘think enlarged’, towards a Union of 30+ members.
In fact, the prospect of enlargement ‘only’ reinforces the Union’s reform imperative. In the era we live in, the EU as we know it finds itself in a do-or-die situation. To make the Union enlargement-, future- and crisis-proof, the EU and its members should follow a gradual internal reform approach that enables the Union to progressively adapt its operating system and core policies.
Even if the final reform outcome cannot be predicted from today’s perspective, Europeans must overcome the present institutional stalemate and complacency by providing new impetus to reform. This process should start now and develop gradually over time. Increasing the clarity and predictability of the internal EU reform path is required to persuade national capitals to commit to revamping the Union.
If some EU governments block a further deepening of European integration, the ‘willing and able’ members should intensify their level of cooperation via an Open Supra-Governmental Avantgarde (OSGA) outside the EU framework (if necessary). In the immediate future, the OSGA will be especially necessary in the area of defence or in case some EU countries/leaders veto enlargement.
By doing its own ‘homework’, the Union would live by example, motivating aspiring member states to meet the accession criteria. It would also help to restore the damaged credibility of the European perspective offered to these countries. The EU should commit to pursuing internal reform and enlargement in tandem through successive waves, adjusting the speed and ambition of the two mutually reinforcing processes in line with the evolution of wider global developments.
But increasing threats to Europe’s security might force us to be even bolder: if incrementalism cannot allow the EU27 to turn the situation around quickly enough to effectively cope with mounting external pressures, the Union should integrate all current and dedicated EU-hopefuls in one ‘big wave’ in the coming years. Doing so would temporarily forego a strict interpretation of the present merit-based enlargement approach, as well as the need to wait on the EU to reform first. Yet, reform shortcomings and the risk of democratic backsliding should be duly addressed post-accession, once new members have joined the Union.
Ultimately, whether the EU27 opt for a gradual or wholesale widening, it needs to muster the political will to welcome new members instead of focusing on further revisions to the methodology for enlargement. The policy should be redefined as a means for the EU to mature politically in a challenging geopolitical context, strengthening the number of allies working together for peace, prosperity, fundamental rights and liberal democracy on the European continent. The concrete steps, resources and timeframes that will allow the Union to progress on the enlargement dossier – in stages or at once – should be clarified without delay.
This is not a drill. EUrope must pass the test of times, taking on both enlargement and internal reform with courage and ambition, because its own relevance and survival are at stake. History is calling – but will Europeans come to the rendezvous?
This paper seeks to inspire, promote and link the debates on how to widen and deepen European integration in the coming years. Starting from the assumption that enlargement and internal EU reform are normative imperatives, it explores potential avenues to advance both processes (strategic options), identifies the most suitable (combinations of) strategic options, and presents 12 concrete recommendations on how to implement enlargement and internal EU reform in practice in the years ahead.
Read the full paper here.